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Probability theory provides the underlying mathematical foundation for assessing and analyzing situations involving uncertainty. As such, it is essential for thinking rationally and determining the course of action when future outcomes are not known with certainty.
For this week’s Exam, be sure to read “Appendix: Basic Principles of Probability Theory” in the Hastie and Dawes text. Then complete the multimedia piece, “Probability and Decision Making Activity.” This tutorial provides a brief introduction to probability theory, definitions of terms, and an explanation of how to calculate probabilities of events. After you complete the tutorial activity, you will take an exam based on the material from the Appendix and the tutorial.
First, solve the problems presented in the tutorial by responding as requested in the text boxes. As you move through the tutorial, feel free to consult the Hastie and Dawes Appendix or other texts.
After completing the tutorial, read and complete the exam problems in the “Week 3 Probability Problems Exam” handout. You are expected to do the exam without assistance from anyone other than your Instructor.
The week 3 outcomes include:
1. Apply current probability theory to solve probability problems
2. Describe challenges in solving decision problems
3. Analyze strategies for solving decision problems
Please remember to show how you got your answers for the week 3 exam.
https://class.waldenu.edu/courses/1/USW1.272.201630/blog/_6122349_1/post/_624089_1/Probability%20-%20MGMT%208045%20condensed%20September%202015.pptx
Hastie, R., & Dawes, R. M. (2010). Rational choice in an uncertain world (2nd ed.). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage. “Appendix: Basic Principles of Probability Theory” (pp. 337–359)

Attachments
USW1_MGMT_8045_Week03_probabilityProblems.doc
Rational Choice in an Uncertain World _ SAGE Publications Inc.html
Let’s Make Decisions.html
USW1_MGMT_8045_Week03_probabilityProblems (2).doc

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Attachments
Week 3 exam answer (1).doc
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